Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP)

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Talk (Work in Progress): Tom Sterkenburg (MCMP/LMU)

Location: Ludwigstr. 31, ground floor, Room 021.

16.11.2017 12:00  – 14:00 


The Truth-Convergence of Open-Minded Bayesianism


Following suggestions by Shimony (1970) and Earman (1992), Wemmackers and Romeijn (2015) work out an extension of Bayesian confirmation theory that can deal with newly proposed hypotheses. A central property of the standard Bayesian approach is its convergence to the truth: if we assigned positive prior probability to the correct hypothesis about the generation of the data, then we will converge almost surely to certainty about this hypothesis. The question is whether a plausible version of this property is retained in Wenmacker and Romeijn's "open-minded Bayesianism."