Talk (Work in Progress): Tom Sterkenburg (MCMP/LMU)
The Truth-Convergence of Open-Minded Bayesianism
Following suggestions by Shimony (1970) and Earman (1992), Wemmackers and Romeijn (2015) work out an extension of Bayesian confirmation theory that can deal with newly proposed hypotheses. A central property of the standard Bayesian approach is its convergence to the truth: if we assigned positive prior probability to the correct hypothesis about the generation of the data, then we will converge almost surely to certainty about this hypothesis. The question is whether a plausible version of this property is retained in Wenmacker and Romeijn's "open-minded Bayesianism."