Talk: Richard Bradley (LSE)
Chances and Credences
In this talk I will defend two mutually supporting theses about the relation between chances and credences. The first is that chances should be identified with the judgements or partial beliefs of a (hypothetical) unbounded and fully informed perfect inductive reasoner and not with any of the possible grounds for her judgements, such as frequencies or propensities. The second is a conditional version of the Principal Principle, which says that that rational conditional belief given the evidence should go by the expectation of conditional chance given this evidence. Jointly these theses offer the best explanation for the role of chances in our practical life.