Talk: Moritz Schulz (Hamburg)
Decisions with(out) Belief
Decisions can be made in terms of outright beliefs in a simple and effective way. However, these decisions are often worse than decisions made in terms of credences which maximize expected value. How big can this gap possibly be? An answer to this question is likely to shed light on the relation between credences and outright beliefs. More precisely, a possible conjecture would be that the threshold for belief is partly determined by how closely the agent would like her decisions to approximate maximal expected value.