Talk: Kevin Dorst (MCMP)
Location: Ludwigstr. 31, ground floor, Room 021.
17.04.2024 at 16:00
Title:
Clarity and Ambiguity
Abstract:
Some of our uncertain judgments are clear—How likely is a fair coin to land heads? Others are ambiguous—How likely am I to own a dozen spoons? Unlike clear judgments, ambiguous ones are subject to noise, self-doubt, and (at times) bias. I argue that the distinguishing feature is that clear judgments are higher-order certain—we know exactly what our (reasonable) credences are—while ambiguous judgments are higher-order uncertain: we’re unsure what our (reasonable) credences are. After showing how higher-order uncertainty makes sense of ambiguity, I’ll (1) argue that it’s inevitable given cognitive noise, and (2) show how it makes predictable biases rational.