Talk (Work in Progress): Hannah Pillin (MCMP)

Title:

Fragmented Bayesianism

Abstract:

In this talk, I will present a WIP version of a fragmented account of Bayesianism. This work is a Bayesian continuation of the work I have been doing on (qualitative) fragmented justification for my PhD project. According to orthodox Bayesian confirmation theory, an agent’s credences for any proposition are modeled via one single probability function which adheres to the standard axioms of probability. According to fragmented Bayesianism, an agent’s doxastic state can be represented as multiple fragment-indexed probability functions which, each, have to be coherent (intra-fragmentary coherence), but may be incoherent with each other (inter-fragmentary incoherence). I will present a WIP version of the account, arguments for why such an account might be attractive, and point out some important questions that pose themselves surrounding the account of fragmented Bayesianism.