Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP)

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Imprecise Probabilities in Statistics and Philosophy (27-28 June, 2014)


Idea and Motivation

Imprecise probabilities offer a model of uncertainty that is more general, less idealised than the standard precise probability framework. Imprecise probabilities are receiving increasing attention in statistics (as well as in artificial intelligence and in economics). Recently, there has been a resurgence of philosophical interest in these generalised models of uncertainty. The aim of this workshop is to bring together philosophers and statisticians to see what we can learn from each other. We are sure that such interdisciplinary collaboration will be valuable both to philosophers and to statisticians.


27 June

08:30 - 09:00 Registration
09:00 - 09:15 Welcome Address
09:15 - 10:30 Teddy Seidenfeld (Carnegie Mellon University): Eliciting Imprecise Probabilities
10:30 - 11:00 Coffee Break
11:00 - 11:45 Carl Wagner (Tennessee): Strassen Capacities as Constraints on Probability Revision
11:45 - 12:30 Frank Coolen (Durham): Nonparametric Predictive Inference with Imperfect Data
12:30 - 13:45 Lunch
13:45 - 14:30 Catrin Campbell-Moore (MCMP): Imprecise Probabilities and Supervaluational Logic
14:30 - 15:15 Brian Hill (GREGHEC, HEC Paris and CNRS): Dynamic Choice: A Problem for Imprecise Probabilities or Imprecise Probabilists?
15:15 - 15:45 Coffee Break
15:45 - 16:30 Arthur Paul Pedersen and Gregory Wheeler (Max Planck Institute for Human Development and MCMP): Demystifying Dilation
16:30 - 17:15 Frederik Herzberg (Bielefeld University): Aggregating Infinitely Many Probability Measures
17:15 - 18:00 Arthur Van Camp, Gert de Cooman and Erik Quaeghebeur (Ghent University, SYSTeMS Research Group, Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica): Connecting Choice Functions and Sets of Desirable Gambles

There will be a joint workshop dinner, starting 7pm at "Georgenhof" (Friedrichstr. 1, 80801 München, within walking distance from the workshop venue).

28 June

09:00 - 10:15 Fabio Cozman (University of São Paolo): Graph-theoretical Models for Imprecise Probabilities: Independence Assumptions, Logical Constructs
10:15 - 10:45 Coffee Break
10:45 - 11:30 Yann Benetreau-Dupin (University of Western Ontario): Blurring Out Cosmic Puzzles
11:30 - 12:15 Hannes Leitgeb and Jan-Willem Romeijn (MCMP and RUG): Statistics and Full Belief
12:15 - 13:30 Lunch
13:30 - 14:15 Anthony Peressini (Marquette University): Imprecise Probability and the Temporal Evolution of Chance
14:15 - 15:00 Marco Cattaneo (LMU): Unreliable Probabilities and Statistical Learning
15:00 - 15:30 Coffee Break
15:30 - 16:15 Seamus Bradley (MCMP): Learning from Dilation and Belief Inertia
16:15 - 17:00 Namjoong Kim (Research Institute of Philosophy and Liberal Arts Education): A Dilemma for the Imprecise Bayesian
17:00 - 17:15 Short Break
17:15 - 18:30 James M. Joyce (Michigan): Imprecise Priors as Expressions of Epistemic Value


This conference is supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and by LMU’s Department of Statistics.