Imprecise Probabilities in Statistics and Philosophy (27-28 June, 2014)
Idea and Motivation
Imprecise probabilities offer a model of uncertainty that is more general, less idealised than the standard precise probability framework. Imprecise probabilities are receiving increasing attention in statistics (as well as in artificial intelligence and in economics). Recently, there has been a resurgence of philosophical interest in these generalised models of uncertainty. The aim of this workshop is to bring together philosophers and statisticians to see what we can learn from each other. We are sure that such interdisciplinary collaboration will be valuable both to philosophers and to statisticians.
Program
27 June
| Time | Topic |
|---|---|
| 08:30 - 09:00 | Registration |
| 09:00 - 09:15 | Welcome Address |
| 09:15 - 10:30 | Teddy Seidenfeld (Carnegie Mellon University): Eliciting Imprecise Probabilities |
| 10:30 - 11:00 | Coffee Break |
| 11:00 - 11:45 | Carl Wagner (Tennessee): Strassen Capacities as Constraints on Probability Revision |
| 11:45 - 12:30 | Frank Coolen (Durham): Nonparametric Predictive Inference with Imperfect Data |
| 12:30 - 13:45 | Lunch |
| 13:45 - 14:30 | Catrin Campbell-Moore (MCMP): Imprecise Probabilities and Supervaluational Logic |
| 14:30 - 15:15 | Brian Hill (GREGHEC, HEC Paris and CNRS): Dynamic Choice: A Problem for Imprecise Probabilities or Imprecise Probabilists? |
| 15:15 - 15:45 | Coffee Break |
| 15:45 - 16:30 | Arthur Paul Pedersen and Gregory Wheeler (Max Planck Institute for Human Development and MCMP): Demystifying Dilation |
| 16:30 - 17:15 | Frederik Herzberg (Bielefeld University): Aggregating Infinitely Many Probability Measures |
| 17:15 - 18:00 | Arthur Van Camp, Gert de Cooman and Erik Quaeghebeur (Ghent University, SYSTeMS Research Group, Centrum Wiskunde and Informatica): Connecting Choice Functions and Sets of Desirable Gambles |
There will be a joint workshop dinner, starting 7pm at "Georgenhof" (Friedrichstr. 1, 80801 München, within walking distance from the workshop venue).
28 June
| Time | Topic |
|---|---|
| 09:00 - 10:15 | Fabio Cozman (University of São Paolo): Graph-theoretical Models for Imprecise Probabilities: Independence Assumptions, Logical Constructs |
| 10:15 - 10:45 | Coffee Break |
| 10:45 - 11:30 | Yann Benetreau-Dupin (University of Western Ontario): Blurring Out Cosmic Puzzles |
| 11:30 - 12:15 | Hannes Leitgeb and Jan-Willem Romeijn (MCMP and RUG): Statistics and Full Belief |
| 12:15 - 13:30 | Lunch |
| 13:30 - 14:15 | Anthony Peressini (Marquette University): Imprecise Probability and the Temporal Evolution of Chance |
| 14:15 - 15:00 | Marco Cattaneo (LMU): Unreliable Probabilities and Statistical Learning |
| 15:00 - 15:30 | Coffee Break |
| 15:30 - 16:15 | Seamus Bradley (MCMP): Learning from Dilation and Belief Inertia |
| 16:15 - 17:00 | Namjoong Kim (Research Institute of Philosophy and Liberal Arts Education): A Dilemma for the Imprecise Bayesian |
| 17:00 - 17:15 | Short Break |
| 17:15 - 18:30 | James M. Joyce (Michigan): Imprecise Priors as Expressions of Epistemic Value |
Acknowledgement
This conference is supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and by LMU’s Department of Statistics.