MuST 9: Evidence, Inference, and Risk Munich (31 March - 2 April 2016 )
Idea and Motivation
This 9th conference of the Munich-Sydney-Tilburg (MuST) conference series aims at gathering philosophers and scientists of the natural and social sciences in order to examine the theoretical and methodological issues involved in evidence evaluation, statistical inference and causal inference in relation to risk assessment and management in various disciplines, with a special attention to pharmacology. In particular, following questions will be on focus:
How should we collect, evaluate, and use evidence for the purpose of risk management and prevention? What methods should be adopted in causal inference for preventing harm? What kinds of scientific inferences are we allowed to draw from data-mining techniques? What are the relevant decision-theoretic dimensions involved in different kinds of risks, and what kinds of decision rules are more advisable in diverse contexts? What types of uncertainties can we identify when dealing with hazards?
These questions raise methodological concerns related to the data and tools available for risk measurement and modeling, the right kinds of interventions we should adopt in order to prevent or minimize it, and the best ways to gather, evaluate and combine different sources of knowledge. Furthermore, they are intimately connected with epistemological issues in the philosophy of science, and the foundations of statistics and probability.
Pharmacology is a particularly interesting field of investigation in these respects. Together with revolutionary successes, e.g. the discovery of penicillin, the history of pharmacology is also characterized by a series of tragic disasters (from the thalidomide to the rofecoxib case), which showcase the extreme variance of its scientific performance. Furthermore, pharmaceutical decisions are set in a complex environment where scientific uncertainty, conflicts of interests, and regulatory constraints strongly interact. The workshop intends to investigate these phenomena in light of the current methodological and philosophical debate.
Program
Day 1 (31 March, 2016)
| Time | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| 10:00 - 11:15 | Plenary Session | |
| 10:00 - 10:15 | Welcome: Stephan Hartmann and Barbara Osimani | |
| 10:15 - 11:15 | Glenn Shafer: "Probability Judgement" (Room M203) Chair: Jan Sprenger |
|
| 11:15 - 11:45 | Coffee Break | |
| Session I (Room M203) | Session II (Room M209) | |
| 11:45 - 12:30 | Christoph Jansen and Thomas Augustin: "Probabilistic Evaluation of Preference Aggregation Functions". Chair: Stephan Hartmann |
Paul Griffiths: "Holding Pathology Hostage". Chair: Phyllis Illari |
| 12:30 - 13:15 | Anne-Laure Boulesteix, Roman Horning, Willi Sauerbrei: "On Fishing for Significance and Statistician´s Degree of Freedom in Biomedical Applications". Chair: Stephan Hartmann |
Jeffrey Aronson: "Do Mechanisms Constitute Clinical Evidence?". Chair: Phyllis Illari |
| 13:15 - 14:45 | Lunch | |
| 14:45 - 15:30 | Daniel Malinsky: "Decision Making under Causal Uncertainty". Chair: Vincenzo Crupi |
Phyllis Illari: "Who´s Afraid of Mechanisms?". Chair: Jürgen Landes |
| 15:30 - 16:15 | Justin Dallman: "Evidence Principles, Belief, and Credence". Chair: Vincenzo Crupi |
David Teira, Brendan Clarke, Maël Lemoine: "Taking the Risks of Testing Personalized Treatments". Chair: Jürgen Landes |
| 16:15 - 16:45 | Coffee Break | |
| 16:45 - 17:30 | Jan Sprenger: “Applying a Measure of Corroboration in Statistical Inference”. Chair: Brendan Clarke |
Daria Jadreškić: "Some Social Aspects of the Discovery, Synthesis and Production of Cortisone in the 1930s-1950s". Chair: David Teira |
Day 2 (1 April, 2016)
| Time | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| 09:45 - 10:45 | Plenary Session: Julian Reiss: "In Defence of Statistical Minimalism" (Room M203) Chair: Paul Griffiths |
|
| 10:45 - 11:15 | Coffee Break | |
| Session I (Room M203) | Session II (Room M209) | |
| 11:15 - 12:00 | Nevin Climenhaga: "Epistemic Probabilities: A Guide for the Perplexed". Chair: Seamus Bradley |
Wolfgang Pietsch: "A Causal Account of Analogical Inference". Chair: Mark Colyvan |
| 12:00 - 12:45 | Bengt Autzen: "A Popperian Doctrine on Probability Revisited". Chair: Seamus Bradley |
Roland Poellinger: "Confirmation via In Silico Simulation". Chair: Mark Colyvan |
| 12:45 - 14:15 | Lunch | |
| 14:15 - 15:00 | Ludwig Fahrbach: "Evidence Amalgamation and Atomism". Chair: Lorenzo Casini |
Momme von Sidow, Dennis Hebbelmann, Björn Meder: "How Causal Reasoning Can Distort Evidence". Chair: Roland Poellinger |
| 15:00 - 15:45 | Jürgen Landes: "A Multi-Criterial Approach to Amalgamating Evidence". Chair: Lorenzo Casini |
Thomas Boyer-Kassen: "A Defense of the Precautionary Principle". Chair: Roland Poellinger |
| 15:45 - 16:30 | Barbara Osimani: "Causal Inference in Pharmacology: towards a Framework for Evidence Amalgamation". Chair: Lorenzo Casini |
Pierrick Bourrat: "Challenging the Evidence for Species Selection and the Export-Of Fitness Model of Evolutionary Transitions in Individuality". Chair: Roland Poellinger |
| 16:30 - 17:00 | Coffee Break | |
| 17:00 - 17:45 | Lorenzo Casini: "A Bayesian Theory of Constitution". Chair: Barbara Osimani |
Inge de Bal: "Evidence and Extrapolation in Failure Analysis". Chair: Phyllis Illari |
| 20:00 | Conference Dinner |
|
Day 3 (2 April, 2016)
| Time | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| 10:00 - 11:00 | Plenary Session: Jon Williamson: "Establishing Causal Claims in Medicine" (Room M203) Chair: Mark Colyvan |
|
| 11:00 - 11:30 | Coffee Break | |
| Session I (Room M203) | Session II (Room M209) | |
| 11:30 - 12:15 | Christian Wallmann: “Three Methods for Solving the Problem of Inconsistent Marginals in Data Integration”. Chair: Brendan Clarke |
Bennet Holman: "Pharmacology: An Asymmetric Arms Race". Chair: Lorenzo Casini |
| 12:15 - 13:00 | Alexander Hapfelmeier: "Exploratory Subgroup Analysis by Recursive Segmentation". Chair: Brendan Clarke |
Momme von Sydow, Niels Braus: "On Biased Contingency Assessment and Inner-Organizational Dilemmas of Personel Evaluation". Chair: Lorenzo Casini |
Acknowledgement:
The conference is generously supported by the European Research Council (Grant 639276 and Grant 640638).