Causal and Probabilistic Reasoning (18-20 June 2015)
Idea and Motivation
2015 marks the 15th anniversary of the publications of Judea Pearl’s Causality and the second edition of Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines’ Causality, Prediction, and Search, which together are the foundations for the mathematical theory of causal modeling. During this period, the theory of causal Bayesian networks has been applied to a variety of topics in the special sciences, including the brain and cognitive sciences. This conference will focus on the applications of probabilistic and causal modeling in cognitive science, with an emphasis on assessing both the power and limitations of these tools in our understanding of cognition.
Program
18 June
| Time | Topic |
|---|---|
| 08:30 - 09:00 | Registration |
| 09:00 - 09:15 | Welcome |
| 09:15 - 10:30 | Keynote Lecture: Spohn, Wolfgang: Fifteen Dimensions of Evaluating Theories of Causation. A Case Study of the Structural Model and the Ranking Theoretic Approach to Causation Chair: Gregory Wheeler |
| 10:30 - 10:45 | Coffee Break |
| 10:45 - 11:30 | Leuridan, Bert/Beilaen, Mathieu: A Logic for the Discovery of Causal Regularities |
| 11:30 - 12:15 | Fan, Da/Wang, Linton: Paradigmatic Causation and Multitudes of Trumping |
| 12:15 - 13:45 | Lunch |
| 13:45 - 14:30 | Danks, David: Graphical Models, Cognitive Representations, and Semantic Heterogeneity |
| 14:30 - 15:15 | Poellinger, Roland/Hubert, Mario: Bell’s Theorem and Non-Markovian Network Models |
| 15:15 - 15:30 | Coffee Break |
| 15:30 - 16:15 | Mayrhofer, Ralf/Waldmann, Michael: Agents and Causes: Dispositional Intuitions as a Guide to Causal Structure |
| 16:15 - 17:00 | Näger, Paul: The Causal Markov Condition and Non-Screening-Off Common Causes |
| 17:00 - 17:15 | Coffee Break |
19 June
20 June
| Time | Topic |
|---|---|
| 09:00 - 10:15 | Keynote Lecture: Hertwig, Ralph: Navigating the Twilight of Uncertainty: Decisions from Experience Chair: Michael Waldmann |
| 10:15 - 10:30 | Coffee Break |
| 10:30 - 11:15 | Carter, Sam: Probabilistic Judgement about Indicative Conditionals: A Formal Model-Based Theory |
| 11:15 - 12:00 | Pfeifer, Niki/Stöckle-Schobel Richard: The Probability of Indicative and Counterfactual Conditionals in Causal and Non-causal Settings |
| 12:00 - 13:30 | Lunch |
| 13:30 - 14:15 | Meder, Bjoern/Mayrhofer, Ralf/Waldmann, Michael R.: Structure Induction in Diagnostic Causal Reasoning |
| 14:15 - 15:00 | Brössel, Peter: On the Rationale of Reverse Inference in Neuroscience |
| 15:00 - 15:15 | Coffee Break |
| 15:15 - 16:00 | Sprenger, Jan/Colombo Matteo: Graded Causation and Explanatory Power, Explicated Probabilistically |
| 16:00 - 16:45 | Weinberger, Naftali: Probabilistic Causality, Structural Equations, and Causal Intermediaries |
| 16:45 - 17:00 | Coffee Break |
| 17:00 - 17:45 | Harinen, Totte: On the Need to Model Proportionality |
Acknowledgement
The conference is kindly supported by the DFG Priority Programme “New Frameworks of Rationality” (SPP 1516), and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.