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Causal and Probabilistic Reasoning (18-20 June 2015)

cpr2015_en

Idea and Motivation

2015 marks the 15th anniversary of the publications of Judea Pearl’s Causality and the second edition of Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines’ Causality, Prediction, and Search, which together are the foundations for the mathematical theory of causal modeling. During this period, the theory of causal Bayesian networks has been applied to a variety of topics in the special sciences, including the brain and cognitive sciences. This conference will focus on the applications of probabilistic and causal modeling in cognitive science, with an emphasis on assessing both the power and limitations of these tools in our understanding of cognition.

Program

18 June

TimeTopic
08:30 - 09:00 Registration
09:00 - 09:15 Welcome
09:15 - 10:30 Keynote Lecture: Spohn, Wolfgang: Fifteen Dimensions of Evaluating Theories of Causation. A Case Study of the Structural Model and the Ranking Theoretic Approach to Causation
Chair: Gregory Wheeler
10:30 - 10:45 Coffee Break
10:45 - 11:30 Leuridan, Bert/Beilaen, Mathieu: A Logic for the Discovery of Causal Regularities
11:30 - 12:15 Fan, Da/Wang, Linton: Paradigmatic Causation and Multitudes of Trumping
12:15 - 13:45 Lunch
13:45 - 14:30 Danks, David: Graphical Models, Cognitive Representations, and Semantic Heterogeneity
14:30 - 15:15 Poellinger, Roland/Hubert, Mario: Bell’s Theorem and Non-Markovian Network Models
15:15 - 15:30 Coffee Break
15:30 - 16:15 Mayrhofer, Ralf/Waldmann, Michael: Agents and Causes: Dispositional Intuitions as a Guide to Causal Structure
16:15 - 17:00 Näger, Paul: The Causal Markov Condition and Non-Screening-Off Common Causes
17:00 - 17:15 Coffee Break

19 June

TimeTopic
10:00 - 11:15 Keynote Lecture: Hahn, Ulrike: Causal Argument
Chair: Karolina Krzy┼╝anowska
11:15 - 11:30 Coffee Break
11:30 - 12:15 Sydow, Momme von: Logical Inclusion Fallacies Within One Polytomous Dimension
12:15 - 13:45 Lunch
13:45 - 14:30 Lukits, Stefan: A Natural Generalization of Jeffrey Conditioning
14:30 - 15:15 Betz, Gregor: The Veritistic Merit of Probabilistic Degrees of Justification and Doxastic Conservativism in Belief Revision
15:15 - 15:30 Coffee Break
15:30 - 16:15 Horne, Zachary/Livengood, Jonathan: Ordering Effects, Updating Effects, and the Specter of Global Skepticism
16:15 - 17:00 Gyenis, Balazs: Do Genuine Ordering Effects Exist?
17:00 - 17:15 Coffee Break
17:15 - 18:00 Stenning, Keith/Martignon, Laura: A Qualitative Intensional Approach to Causal Reasoning and Decision in Uncertainty
18:00 - 18:45 Stenning, Keith/Varga, Alexandra: Normative Gloves That Fit Agents’ Hands: Consequences of a Multiple Logics-Framework for Reasoning
20:00 Conference Dinner

20 June

TimeTopic
09:00 - 10:15 Keynote Lecture: Hertwig, Ralph: Navigating the Twilight of Uncertainty: Decisions from Experience
Chair: Michael Waldmann
10:15 - 10:30 Coffee Break
10:30 - 11:15 Carter, Sam: Probabilistic Judgement about Indicative Conditionals: A Formal Model-Based Theory
11:15 - 12:00 Pfeifer, Niki/Stöckle-Schobel Richard: The Probability of Indicative and Counterfactual Conditionals in Causal and Non-causal Settings
12:00 - 13:30 Lunch
13:30 - 14:15 Meder, Bjoern/Mayrhofer, Ralf/Waldmann, Michael R.: Structure Induction in Diagnostic Causal Reasoning
14:15 - 15:00 Brössel, Peter: On the Rationale of Reverse Inference in Neuroscience
15:00 - 15:15 Coffee Break
15:15 - 16:00 Sprenger, Jan/Colombo Matteo: Graded Causation and Explanatory Power, Explicated Probabilistically
16:00 - 16:45 Weinberger, Naftali: Probabilistic Causality, Structural Equations, and Causal Intermediaries
16:45 - 17:00 Coffee Break
17:00 - 17:45 Harinen, Totte: On the Need to Model Proportionality

Acknowledgement

The conference is kindly supported by the DFG Priority Programme “New Frameworks of Rationality” (SPP 1516), and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.AvH_Logo_n7_4c